Apples övergång till ARM sannolikt dåliga nyheter för Intel

Jean-Louis Gassée:

First, we’ll see how Apple manages to succeed where Microsoft failed…twice. Yes, Apple knows how to port its devices to a new CPU. As mentioned in last week’s Monday Note, the move from PowerPC to Intel in 2005 was an unqualified success. But will Apple’s inducement to third party app developers — the (retroactively understandable) rejection of 32-bit apps in macOS Catalina, the Catalyst tool that will help developers bring their iOS apps to macOS — will the groundwork pay off?

Second, Microsoft execs might be thinking longer term than today’s “try again, fail again” ARM efforts. Perhaps they’re thinking that by the time Apple ships its ARM-ed Macs, the next generation Surface Pro X will enjoy a full suite of ARM-native apps from Microsoft and key third parties. This would result in a product that’s competitive with whatever Apple has next year.

Finally — and more relevant to today’s topic — maybe it’s not a zero-sum, Apple vs Microsoft game. Fully functional ARMed Windows and macOS devices might finally have an impact on Intel’s business. If both Microsoft and Apple successfully unleash attractive ARM Architecture devices, Windows OEMs big and small won’t want to be left behind; they’ll launch a plethora of machines running the next generation of ARM-based software. That might finally have a sizable impact on Intel’s business.

Med tanke på att ARM fortsätter växa på servermarknaden så är det inte otroligt att en stor del av datorer som säljs till privatpersoner och företag i framtiden kör ARM och inte x86-processorer. Apple är ingen stor kund för Intel, men det finns ett symbolvärde i att Apple går över till ARM och Microsoft redan har både datorer, operativsystem och applikationer som körs med ARM-processorer.